Manager, RLC Forecasting and Demand Planning

About Carrier:

Carrier, global leader in intelligent climate and energy solutions, is committed to creating innovations that bring comfort, safety and sustainability to life. Through cutting-edge advancements in climate solutions such as temperature control, air quality and transportation, we improve lives, empower critical industries and ensure the safe transport of food, life-saving medicines and more. Since inventing modern air conditioning in 1902, we lead with purpose: enhancing the lives we live and the world we share. We continue to lead because of our world-class, inclusive workforce that puts the customer at the center of everything we do. For more information, visit corporate.carrier.com or follow Carrier on social media at @Carrier.

About This Role:

The Forecasting and Demand Planning Manager is responsible for developing a data-informed five-year industry outlook and a Carrier-specific demand sensing outlook for the North America Residential and Light Commercial markets.  

In partnership with the Market Intelligence and Strategic Insights team, this critical role will monitor industry trends, competitive dynamics, customer behavior, and emerging opportunities.  

This role partners closely with the Climate Solutions Americas Strategy Director responsible for Residential and Light Commercial business units, as well as executive leadership and cross-functional teams to shape near-term and long-range demand and strategic planning. 

Key Responsibilities:

Regional Forecasting

• Leverage, maintain, and refine industry outlook models developed to forecast the North America Residential and Light Commercial HVAC markets for the monthly Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) process, Annual Operating Plan (Plan) and five-year Long-Range Plan 

• Pressure-test the Annual Operating Plan (Plan) industry outlook forecast to ensure achievability and reasonableness 

• Generate supplemental industry outlook forecast scenarios through sensitivity analysis against key variables and assumptions to provide senior leadership with a lower and upper bound for the forecast, in addition to the baseline forecast  

• Leverage, maintain, and refine Carrier’s demand sensing forecast for Residential and Light Commercial to detect and respond to short-term changes in customer demand 

• Collaborate with North America Sales & Operations Planning personnel to mutually develop the SIOP monthly demand forecast for North America Residential and Light Commercial, which balances unconstrainted demand and supply constraints 

Forecast Performance Monitoring

• Track and continuously monitor and improve forecast model accuracy using KPIs such as MAPE  

Forecasting & Demand Planning Dashboard

• Leverage, maintain, and refine PowerBI / QuickSight dashboard of standard planning and forecasting analytics for senior leadership, inclusive of “Red Flag” metrics (e.g. shipment vs. movement, fill rate deltas, actual vs. plan, Add On Replacement vs. Residential New Construction split) 

Market Intelligence Integration

• Incorporate U.S. and Canadian regulatory changes (e.g., SEER2 standards, refrigerant transition) and insights from the Market Intelligence and Strategic Insights team into the forecast and demand planning models 

• Maintain an in-depth knowledge of designated markets and trends through monitoring industry reports, market research, and relevant macroeconomic data, most notably from S&P, Moody’s, National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and HARDI  

Channel Collaboration

• Collaborate with Carrier Distributor Sales, Distributor Performance, and Strategic Account leadership as well as with North American distributors, dealer advisory councils and OEM partners gather demand signals and validate forecast assumptions 

General

• Aggressively identify opportunities to leverage and deploy AI tools and new data sources to improve model accuracy 

• Demonstrated ability to communicate complex information clearly and accurately to a variety of audiences both orally and through written material 

• Transform large amounts of data into meaningful and impactful terms 

Required Qualifications:

• Bachelor’s degree  

• 5+ years of experience developing executive-level summaries and presentations 

• 5+ years of advanced knowledge and work in Microsoft Excel and PowerPoint 

• 5+ years of advanced demand planning and forecasting 

Preferred Qualifications:

• Master’s degree, preferably in Business Administration, Data Science/Analytics, Supply Chain, or related field 

• An ability to work collaboratively and deliver results through virtual collaboration environments leveraging platforms such as Microsoft Teams 

• Experience with business intelligence, analytics, data visualization and Supply Chain management tools such as Power BI, Tableau, ThinkCell, Kinaxis and similar tools 

• Experience with statistical modeling, data science tools such as Python, SAS, cloud platforms or similar tools 

• Familiarity with U.S. and Canadian HVAC industry, including current and future regulations and standards, market dynamics and distribution channels 

• Knowledge of macroeconomic trends and factors and their impact on HVAC demand (e.g. regional climate trends, mortgage interest rates, residential new construction starts, existing home sales) 

• Proven ability to execute with speed and exhibit a bias for action 

Benefits
Employees are eligible for benefits, including:

• Health Care benefits: Medical, Dental, Vision; wellness incentives

• Retirement benefits

• Time Off and Leave: Paid vacation days, up to 15 days; paid sick days, up to 5 days; paid personal leave, up to 5 days; paid holidays, up to 13 days; birth and adoption leave; parental leave; family and medical leave; bereavement leave; jury duty; military leave; purchased vacation 

• Disability: Short-term and long-term disability 

• Life Insurance and Accidental Death and Dismemberment 

• Tax-Advantaged Accounts: Health Savings Account; Healthcare Spending Account; Dependent Care Spending Account 

• Tuition Assistance 

To learn more about our benefits offering, please click here:Work With Us | Carrier Corporate  The specific benefits available to any employee may vary depending on state and local laws and eligibility factors, such as date of hire and the applicability of collective bargaining agreements.  

This position is entitled to short-term cash incentives, subject to plan requirements.  

Carrier is An Equal Opportunity/Affirmative Action Employer. All qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, religion, sex, sexual orientation, gender identity, national origin, disability or veteran status, age or any other federally protected class.

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